Reasoning
The current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range has been held since June 17, 2026, and the June SEP already lifted the year end 2026 median projection to 3.8 percent with nine of eighteen participants expecting a higher year end rate, yet Chair Warsh's post meeting statement removed the prior easing bias and signaled a data dependent pause rather than an active tightening campaign. Historical FOMC behavior shows that after a rate pause following a hiking cycle the probability of a December hike remains low unless incoming inflation data exceed 3 percent or labor market tightness metrics breach prior cycle highs, neither of which has occurred since the June meeting. The December 2026 meeting therefore starts from a neutral stance with limited room for an intra meeting shift to a hike.Key uncertainty
Whether the October and November CPI prints print above 3.2 percent year over year and force an emergency reassessment.