Will the Fed announce a material change to its balance-sheet operating framework during 2026?
LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026
Current view
39%
Current 4 model consensus
Movement
Recent consensus movement
Model disagreement
22pt
Range across the model set
Evidence
Contested
Material disagreement remains
Thesis map
What is carrying or resisting the view?
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What changed
No decision-relevant findings are available yet.
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Why the view is fragile
22pt model spread around 39% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.
Model disagreement
Model spread
22pt
28% to 50%
Consensus
39%
4 models
Evidence state
Contested
Material disagreement remains
Most divergent
Claude
+11pt from consensus
Disagreement synthesis
The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.
Grok anchors the lower end at 28%, while Claude anchors the upper end at 50%. Consensus sits at 39%, leaving a 22 point range for review.
Primary review question
N/A
Shared probability axis
Range 28% to 50%
Consensus 39%
Grok 28
GPT-4o 40
Gemini 40
Claude 50
0255075100
ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal
Model reasoning
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Reasoning
No reasoning captured.
Key uncertainty
N/A
Deep dive
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Deep dive
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Belief trajectoryConsensus 39% · 22pt spread
Belief trajectory0 updates
Belief trajectory
Consensus—Spread—Confidence—Δ Consensus—
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Resolution & provenance
Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.
Resolution and provenance
How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.
Permanent record
Resolution sources
Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research