Reasoning
The current Federal funds target range is 3.50 to 3.75 percent, with the June 2026 SEP median projecting a year end 2026 funds rate of 3.8 percent, suggesting a continued hawkish stance or at least a reluctance to lower rates. Given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's tenure and the recent erasure of a prior cutting bias, a call to change the primary inflation data source would likely require significant dissatisfaction with the current metrics' ability to inform policy, which is not explicitly evident from the provided data. However, the persistent deviation of nine of eighteen SEP participants projecting rates above the current range indicates some internal divergence on the future path, which could eventually spill into discussions about data inputs.Key uncertainty
The degree of future inflation persistence and the actual trajectory of the federal funds rate relative to the SEP projections in the coming months.