Analysts suggest that a swift and decisive U.S. military strike against Iran, often envisioned as a catalyst for regime change, is unlikely to achieve its intended outcome due to the complex and deeply entrenched nature of the Iranian political system. The notion that a single, dramatic external blow could lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic is a misreading of its survival mechanisms, according to Andreas Krieg, writing for AFP.

Krieg argues that Iran's strength lies in its "coercive cohesion," the ability of its parallel security and political institutions to maintain unity even when public legitimacy wanes. This cohesion allows the system to withstand shocks that would destabilize more conventional states.

The Iranian state is not a monolithic structure with a single point of failure, but rather a "heterarchical, networked state" comprised of overlapping power centers, including the Supreme Leader's office, the Revolutionary Guards, intelligence agencies, clerical figures, and a patronage-based economy. This diffused power structure makes it difficult to cripple the regime with a single blow.

The current unrest within Iran, marked by widespread protests against the leadership, might create the illusion of vulnerability. However, history suggests that authoritarian regimes often appear most stable just before periods of significant change. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated a capacity to absorb internal dissent and external pressure through a combination of repression and strategic maneuvering.

From an international perspective, a U.S. attack on Iran would likely be viewed with concern and could destabilize the already volatile Middle East region. Key global players, including European nations, Russia, and China, have expressed reservations about military intervention in Iran, fearing wider conflict and disruption to energy supplies.

Furthermore, any U.S. military action would need to consider the potential for Iranian retaliation, which could include attacks on U.S. assets in the region, support for proxy groups, and disruptions to international shipping lanes. The consequences of such a conflict could extend far beyond Iran's borders, impacting global security and economic stability.

The current situation remains tense, with the U.S. maintaining a military presence in the region and Iran continuing to develop its nuclear program. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and revive the Iran nuclear deal have stalled, raising concerns about the potential for further escalation. The future trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations remains uncertain, but analysts caution against simplistic assumptions about the ease of achieving regime change through military force.