Bond yields experienced a notable increase Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that Kevin Hassett, a leading economic advisor, would likely remain at the White House instead of being nominated to lead the Federal Reserve. The shift in expectations has led Wall Street analysts to believe that Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor perceived as more hawkish, now has a clearer path to succeed Jerome Powell as chair.
Trump's comments, made during a White House event, injected uncertainty into the ongoing search for a new Fed chair, a position of significant global financial influence. "I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth," Trump said, addressing Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council. "I just want to thank you, you were fantastic on television the other day."
The remarks, while not a definitive statement, altered the perceived landscape of potential candidates. Hassett had been widely considered a front-runner due to his existing relationship with Trump, having served in his administration since his first term. Just last month, Trump had publicly mentioned Hassett as a possible Fed chair.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have far-reaching international implications, influencing exchange rates, capital flows, and economic growth in countries around the world. A more hawkish Fed chair, like Warsh, could signal a tighter monetary policy, potentially leading to higher interest rates in the U.S. This, in turn, could strengthen the U.S. dollar and impact emerging market economies that often borrow in dollars.
Kevin Warsh, a former governor at the Federal Reserve, is viewed by many as a more traditional, inflation-focused policymaker. His potential appointment has been interpreted by some market participants as a signal that the Fed might be less inclined to tolerate higher inflation in the future. This expectation has contributed to the rise in bond yields, as investors anticipate potentially higher interest rates.
Jerome Powell's term as chair concludes on May 15. While it is possible for Powell to remain on the board as a governor after his term ends, such a move would be unusual. Trump appointed Powell. The White House has not yet announced a definitive timeline for the selection of a new Fed chair. The decision will be closely watched by financial markets and governments globally, given the Fed's central role in the international financial system.
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