China's housing market crash is now a significant drag on the nation's economic growth, overshadowing earlier concerns about trade tensions. New home sales plummeted to their lowest level in over 15 years, while prices for existing apartments experienced a sharp decline. This downturn has had a ripple effect, causing millions of households to curtail spending due to the diminished value of their properties.
The real estate sector's woes have also impacted local governments, which heavily depend on land sales for revenue. These governments are now struggling to meet their financial obligations, including paying civil servants. While China's statisticians reported a consistent 5 percent economic growth for the past year, mirroring the previous year's performance and meeting the government's target, the underlying reality paints a different picture. This growth was largely fueled by a boom in exports, resulting in a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025.
The housing market crash, which began four years prior, has steadily worsened, posing a significant challenge to the overall economy. The decline in property values has created a sense of uncertainty and dampened consumer confidence, leading to reduced spending and investment. This, in turn, has affected various sectors of the economy that are linked to the housing market, such as construction, home appliances, and furniture.
The Chinese government faces the challenge of balancing its growth targets with the need to address the underlying issues in the housing market. While export-driven growth has provided a temporary boost, a sustainable economic recovery requires a stable and healthy real estate sector. The future outlook hinges on the government's ability to implement effective measures to stabilize the housing market, restore consumer confidence, and diversify its sources of economic growth.
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