Will the ECB cut rates by 100+ basis points cumulatively between January 1 and September 30, 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
27%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
30pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
20%-7 vs avg
Gemini
45%+18 vs avg
Claude
28%+1 vs avg
Grok
15%-12 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (45%) vs Grok (15%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceECB official rate decisions and press releases