Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during calendar year 2026?

Will the Federal Reserve hold an unscheduled emergency FOMC meeting at any point during 2026?

Will any FOMC voting member dissent in favor of a larger rate cut than the committee decided upon at any 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed announce a one-time acceleration of balance sheet runoff (QT) pace during 2026?

Will the Fed decrease the monthly balance sheet runoff cap at any point during 2026?

Will the unemployment rate rise by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during any 6-month rolling window in 2026?

Will the Fed activate its Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on any day during 2026?

Will the Fed's reverse repo facility (RRP) usage exceed $2.5 trillion on any single day during 2026?

Will core CPI (year-over-year) fall below 2.0% in any month during 2026?

Will the May 2026 FOMC meeting statement explicitly use the phrase 'further rate cuts' or 'rate cuts ahead'?

Will the 2-year Treasury yield fall below 2.0% at any point during 2026?

Will the 2s10s Treasury curve invert (2-year yield > 10-year yield) for 5 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

Will the Fed lower the discount rate (primary credit rate) by more than 25 basis points in a single announcement during 2026?

Will any Treasury auction (of any maturity) in 2026 register a bid-to-cover ratio below 2.0x?

Will the high-yield credit spread (OAS) widen to 500bps or more for 5+ consecutive trading days at any point in 2026?

Will the VIX index close above 40 for 3 or more consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?

Will the S&P 500 decline by 20% or more (peak-to-trough) at any point during 2026?

Will Powell explicitly state at any 2026 press conference that the Fed is in a 'cutting cycle'?

Will the Fed announce a change to the FOMC statement template or communication framework during 2026?

Will the ISM Services PMI drop below 50 for 2 or more consecutive months during 2026?

Will initial jobless claims exceed 400k for 2 or more consecutive weeks at any point during 2026?

Will the unemployment rate rise to 5.5% or higher in any single month during 2026?

Will the Sahm Rule trigger (3-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.5% above 12-month minimum) at any point in 2026?

Will the high-yield CCC-rated bond spread widen to 800 basis points or more for 5+ consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?

Will crude oil (WTI) close above $130/barrel for 10+ consecutive trading days at any point in 2026?

Will the Baltic Dry Index fall below 500 points for 20+ consecutive trading days during 2026?

Will the U.S. investment-grade corporate spread widen to 200 basis points or more for 3+ weeks (15+ trading days) in 2026?

Will the US commercial real estate (CRE) loan delinquency rate reach 6.5% or higher in any quarter of 2026?

Will auto loan delinquency rate (60+ days) reach 4.0% or higher in any quarter of 2026?

Will the Federal Reserve conduct an emergency liquidity injection (Fed discount window lending exceeds $50B) in 2026?

Will deposit flows out of US banks exceed $200 billion in any single month during 2026?

Will the ISM Services PMI drop below 45.0 for 2+ consecutive months in 2026?

Will continuing jobless claims reach 2.5 million or higher in any single week during 2026?

Will S&P 500 earnings per share decline by 15% or more in Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025 (year-over-year)?

Will the Federal Reserve's unemployment rate forecast (Summary of Economic Projections) for end-2026 exceed 4.5% in any FOMC statement during 2026?

Will commercial real estate prices (MSCI/NCREIF index) decline by 10% or more YoY at any point during 2026?

Will investment-grade bond spreads widen to 180+ basis points for 2+ consecutive weeks in 2026?

Will commercial property prices (CBRE All-Property Index) fall 15% or more YoY at any point in 2026?

Will US home prices (S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index) decline 5% or more YoY in any month of 2026?

Will US corporate debt outstanding decline by $500+ billion in any quarter of 2026?

Will the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (core PCE YoY) rise 0.5 percentage points or more in any single month during 2026?

Will the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate fall below 1.5% at any point in 2026?

Will US industrial production decline on a year-over-year basis for 3+ consecutive months in 2026?

Will the Federal Reserve conduct an emergency rate cut (unscheduled FOMC action outside regular meetings) in 2026?

Will any major rating agency downgrade US sovereign debt from AAA in 2026?

Will the spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields invert (30Y lower than 2Y) for 5+ consecutive trading days in 2026?

Will the ECB cut rates by 100+ basis points cumulatively between January 1 and September 30, 2026?

Will the PBOC conduct cumulative RRR cuts totaling 150+ basis points between January 1 and August 31, 2026?

Will the DXY (US Dollar Index) close above 115 for 20+ consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?

Will the Fed and ECB activate an emergency dollar swap line authorization (beyond existing standing facilities) before December 31, 2026?

Will ECB President announce official guidance for rate cuts exceeding 50bps in any single statement between January 1 and June 30, 2026?

Will SNB Chair deliver a speech explicitly endorsing negative rates through end-2026 before August 31, 2026?

Will Riksbank Governor issue forward guidance for rate cuts exceeding 75bps cumulatively before September 30, 2026?

Will the G7 Finance Ministers issue a joint statement calling for coordinated easing before November 30, 2026?

Will the ECB cut rates at more than 5 consecutive meetings between January 1 and December 31, 2026?

Will the Fed and Bank of England jointly activate a new GBP/USD swap line before October 31, 2026?

Will the Bank of England cut rates by 125+ basis points cumulatively during 2026?

Will the Norwegian Krone appreciate by 8%+ against the dollar between January 1 and September 30, 2026?

Will the Swedish Krona weaken by 10%+ against the euro between January 1 and August 31, 2026?

Will the People's Bank of China cut the 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) rate by 25+ basis points before June 30, 2026?

Will the Fed activate its FX Swap Lines with 6+ central banks simultaneously before October 31, 2026?

Will the ECB announce a new Liquidity-providing Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) before May 31, 2026?

Will the G10 central bank heads hold an unscheduled emergency meeting before November 30, 2026?

Will any G7 central bank announce a unilateral currency intervention before June 30, 2026?

Will the Fed expand its reverse repo facility capacity by 50%+ between January 1 and September 30, 2026?

Will the 2-year swap spread widen to 40+ basis points above Treasury yields at any point during 2026?

Will the ICE BofA MOVE index exceed 150 for 15 or more consecutive trading days between January 1 and December 31, 2026?

Will the 2y10y Treasury yield curve slope invert (10y yield minus 2y yield below -50bps) for any single trading day in 2026?

Will the SOFR-IORB spread (SOFR rate minus Fed's Interest on Reserve Balances rate) widen to 20bps or more for 5 or more consecutive trading days in 2026?

Will primary dealers collectively report net short Treasury positions exceeding $50 billion in any single week during 2026?

Will the Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) outstanding balance fall below $200 billion for any single day during Q2 2026?

Will the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread) widen to 150bps or more at any point during 2026?

Will the Bloomberg US Mortgage-Backed Securities Index OAS widen to 120bps or more for 10 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

Will the CMBX.NA.BBB Index price fall below 80 at any point during 2026?

Will the 10-year Treasury auction tail (highest accepted bid yield minus stop-out yield) exceed 2.5bps at any single auction during 2026?

Will the high-yield CCC spread (BofA Merrill Lynch CCC spread) widen to 900bps or more for any 5-consecutive-trading-day period during 2026?

Will the Bloomberg US High Yield OAS exceed 550bps for 15 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

Will the TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF) experience a single-day intra-day price swing (high minus low) exceeding 3% on any trading day during 2026?

Will the fed funds futures implied rate for Dec 2026 drop below 3.0% at any point during 2026?

Will the difference between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield widen to 250bps or more for 10 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

Will the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade OAS exceed 180bps for 5 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

Will repo fails (failed transactions in Treasury repo market) exceed $5 billion on any single day during 2026?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) exceed the Fed's IORB target rate by more than 25bps for any 3-consecutive-day period during 2026?

Will the Federal Reserve reduce its balance sheet at a pace exceeding $150 billion per month (annualized) at any point during 2026?

Will the ICE BofA High Yield Bond Index options implied volatility (HYIV) exceed 60% for any single day during 2026?

Will the Treasury market experience a 'flash crash' event (defined as >2% intra-day swing in 10y yield within 15 minutes) on any trading day during 2026?

Will the gap between the CME Fed funds futures December 2026 price and the FOMC September 2025 SEP median projection widen to 75+ basis points by Q4 2025?

Will the WSJ Fed funds rate expectations survey (December 2025 round) show median 2026 rate cuts of 125+ basis points?

Will at least 5 major economists publish an open letter calling for 100+ basis points of 2026 Fed cuts by August 31, 2026?

Will the yield curve (10Y-2Y) remain inverted for 8+ consecutive weeks at any point in 2026?

Will core PCE fall to 1.8% or lower by June 30, 2026?

Will the Bank for International Settlements issue a report by Q3 2026 flagging US monetary policy as 'overly restrictive'?

Will the IMF's World Economic Outlook recommend Fed rate cuts of 100+ basis points in its April or October 2026 edition?

Will Goldman Sachs shift its 2026 Fed funds rate forecast downward by 75+ basis points between its December 2024 and July 2026 forecasts?

Will the Congressional Budget Office's June 2026 economic forecast show US recession probability ≥40% for 2026 or 2027?

Will the Cato Institute or Heritage Foundation publish a joint statement calling for Fed rate cuts by December 31, 2026?

Will Credit Suisse or UBS publish a report by Q3 2026 forecasting 150+ basis points of Fed cuts in 2026?

Will Fed funds futures for December 2026 show probability >85% of ≥50bps cuts by April 30, 2026?

Will the spread between the fed funds rate (end-2026) and PCE inflation (end-2026) become negative by December 31, 2026?

Will investment-grade credit spreads widen to 200+ basis points at any point in 2026?

Will the Fed's balance sheet expand by $200+ billion during 2026 (signaling crisis intervention)?