Will the PBOC conduct cumulative RRR cuts totaling 150+ basis points between January 1 and August 31, 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
45%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
32pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
60%+15 vs avg
Gemini
60%+15 vs avg
Claude
28%-17 vs avg
Grok
35%-10 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (60%) vs Claude (28%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourcePBOC official announcements and press releases