Will the DXY (US Dollar Index) close above 115 for 20+ consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
18%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
33pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
10%-8 vs avg
Gemini
35%+17 vs avg
Claude
28%+10 vs avg
Grok
2%-16 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (35%) vs Grok (2%): Different weighting of factors