Will the Fed and ECB activate an emergency dollar swap line authorization (beyond existing standing facilities) before December 31, 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
22%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.