Will ECB President announce official guidance for rate cuts exceeding 50bps in any single statement between January 1 and June 30, 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
22%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Mixedmodels
13pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
20%-2 vs avg
Gemini
25%+3 vs avg
Claude
28%+6 vs avg
Grok
15%-7 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceECB press releases and monetary policy decisions