Will SNB Chair deliver a speech explicitly endorsing negative rates through end-2026 before August 31, 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
18%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
10pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.