Will Riksbank Governor issue forward guidance for rate cuts exceeding 75bps cumulatively before September 30, 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
50%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
42pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-20 vs avg
Gemini
35%-15 vs avg
Claude
72%+22 vs avg
Grok
65%+15 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceRiksbank press releases and monetary policy statements