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Back to clusterPart ofWill the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during calendar year 2026?
Event · ECONOMICS

Will the ECB cut rates at more than 5 consecutive meetings between January 1 and December 31, 2026?

Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
26%probability

4-model average

LOWconfidence

building category history

—stability

loading

Alignedmodels

5pt spread

These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.

Belief trajectory

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Per-model probabilities

GPT-4o
30%+4 vs avg
Gemini
25%-1 vs avg
Claude
25%-1 vs avg
GrokGrok
25%-1 vs avg

Resolution criteria

SourceECB monetary policy decisions
CRENE-FED75-CCB-009-20260916Generated May 8, 2026