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Back to clusterPart ofWill the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during calendar year 2026?
Event · ECONOMICS

Will the Norwegian Krone appreciate by 8%+ against the dollar between January 1 and September 30, 2026?

Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
29%probability

4-model average

LOWconfidence

building category history

—stability

loading

Alignedmodels

10pt spread

These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.

Belief trajectory

Loading belief trajectory...

Per-model probabilities

GPT-4o
30%+1 vs avg
Gemini
35%+6 vs avg
Claude
28%-1 vs avg
GrokGrok
25%-4 vs avg

Resolution criteria

SourceBloomberg USD/NOK spot rate
CRENE-FED75-CCB-012-20260916Generated May 8, 2026