Will the People's Bank of China cut the 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) rate by 25+ basis points before June 30, 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
59%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
32pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
40%-19 vs avg
Gemini
60%+1 vs avg
Claude
72%+13 vs avg
Grok
65%+6 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs GPT-4o (40%): Different weighting of factors