Will the ECB announce a new Liquidity-providing Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) before May 31, 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
44%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
37pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
65%+21 vs avg
Gemini
40%-4 vs avg
Claude
28%-16 vs avg
Grok
45%+1 vs avg
Key disagreementGPT-4o (65%) vs Claude (28%): Different weighting of factors