Will the G10 central bank heads hold an unscheduled emergency meeting before November 30, 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
25%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
20pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%+5 vs avg
Gemini
35%+10 vs avg
Claude
20%-5 vs avg
Grok
15%-10 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceCentral bank press releases / BIS announcements