Will the Fed expand its reverse repo facility capacity by 50%+ between January 1 and September 30, 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
27%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Mixedmodels
25pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
40%+13 vs avg
Gemini
35%+8 vs avg
Claude
18%-9 vs avg
Grok
15%-12 vs avg
Key disagreementGPT-4o (40%) vs Grok (15%): Different weighting of factors