Will the unemployment rate rise to 5.5% or higher in any single month during 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
30%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
7pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%
Gemini
30%
Claude
28%-2 vs avg
Grok
35%+5 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation report