Will the Sahm Rule trigger (3-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.5% above 12-month minimum) at any point in 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
28%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
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—stability
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Alignedmodels
10pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
25%-3 vs avg
Gemini
35%+7 vs avg
Claude
28%
Grok
25%-3 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), series SAHMREALTIME or equivalent