Will the high-yield CCC-rated bond spread widen to 800 basis points or more for 5+ consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
30%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%
Gemini
40%+10 vs avg
Claude
28%-2 vs avg
Grok
25%-5 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceICE BofA High Yield CCC Effective Spread Index or Bloomberg Professional