Will crude oil (WTI) close above $130/barrel for 10+ consecutive trading days at any point in 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
18%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
13pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
15%-3 vs avg
Gemini
15%-3 vs avg
Claude
28%+10 vs avg
Grok
15%-3 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceU.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) or CME Group Nymex WTI contract settlement prices