Will the U.S. investment-grade corporate spread widen to 200 basis points or more for 3+ weeks (15+ trading days) in 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
32%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Alignedmodels
7pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-2 vs avg
Gemini
35%+3 vs avg
Claude
28%-4 vs avg
Grok
35%+3 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceICE BofA US Corporate Effective Spread Index (OBSA)