Will the US commercial real estate (CRE) loan delinquency rate reach 6.5% or higher in any quarter of 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
39%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
27pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
40%+1 vs avg
Gemini
55%+16 vs avg
Claude
28%-11 vs avg
Grok
35%-4 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (55%) vs Claude (28%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve Commercial Real Estate Delinquency Rates or OCC Quarterly Loan Portfolio data