Will auto loan delinquency rate (60+ days) reach 4.0% or higher in any quarter of 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
35%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Alignedmodels
3pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%
Gemini
35%
Claude
38%+3 vs avg
Grok
35%
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve Consumer Credit (G.19) or Equifax/TransUnion auto delinquency reports