Will the ISM Services PMI drop below 45.0 for 2+ consecutive months in 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
19%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
24pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%+11 vs avg
Gemini
25%+6 vs avg
Claude
6%-13 vs avg
Grok
15%-4 vs avg
Key disagreementGPT-4o (30%) vs Claude (6%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) Monthly Services Report