Will continuing jobless claims reach 2.5 million or higher in any single week during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
19%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%+11 vs avg
Gemini
15%-4 vs avg
Claude
18%-1 vs avg
Grok
15%-4 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceU.S. Department of Labor, Weekly Jobless Claims (Form 5130)