Will S&P 500 earnings per share decline by 15% or more in Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025 (year-over-year)?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
22%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
12pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%+8 vs avg
Gemini
25%+3 vs avg
Claude
18%-4 vs avg
Grok
18%-4 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceFactSet Earnings Insight or Bloomberg consensus estimates vs. prior-year actuals