Will the Federal Reserve's unemployment rate forecast (Summary of Economic Projections) for end-2026 exceed 4.5% in any FOMC statement during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
56%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
47pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
65%+9 vs avg
Gemini
65%+9 vs avg
Claude
72%+16 vs avg
Grok
25%-31 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs Grok (25%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceFOMC Summary of Economic Projections (Published with December and mid-year FOMC statements)