Will commercial real estate prices (MSCI/NCREIF index) decline by 10% or more YoY at any point during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
34%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Mixedmodels
12pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%+1 vs avg
Gemini
40%+6 vs avg
Claude
28%-6 vs avg
Grok
35%+1 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceMSCI Real Capital Analytics or NCREIF Property Index