Will investment-grade bond spreads widen to 180+ basis points for 2+ consecutive weeks in 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
29%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
25%-4 vs avg
Gemini
40%+11 vs avg
Claude
28%-1 vs avg
Grok
25%-4 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceICE BofA US Corporate Effective Spread Index (OBSA)