Will commercial property prices (CBRE All-Property Index) fall 15% or more YoY at any point in 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
28%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
22pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%+2 vs avg
Gemini
40%+12 vs avg
Claude
18%-10 vs avg
Grok
25%-3 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (40%) vs Claude (18%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceCBRE Commercial Real Estate Services or Moody's Analytics CRE indices