Will US corporate debt outstanding decline by $500+ billion in any quarter of 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
18%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
22pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%+12 vs avg
Gemini
20%+2 vs avg
Claude
8%-10 vs avg
Grok
15%-3 vs avg
Key disagreementGPT-4o (30%) vs Claude (8%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1 release)