Will the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate fall below 1.5% at any point in 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
30%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Alignedmodels
10pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
25%-5 vs avg
Gemini
35%+5 vs avg
Claude
28%-2 vs avg
Grok
35%+5 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve H.15 (Breakeven Inflation Rates) or Bloomberg TIPS spreads