Will US industrial production decline on a year-over-year basis for 3+ consecutive months in 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
36%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Mixedmodels
13pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%-1 vs avg
Gemini
45%+9 vs avg
Claude
32%-4 vs avg
Grok
35%-1 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve Industrial Production report (G.17)