Will any major rating agency downgrade US sovereign debt from AAA in 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
22%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
7pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.