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Back to clusterPart ofWill the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during calendar year 2026?
Event · ECONOMICS

Will the spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields invert (30Y lower than 2Y) for 5+ consecutive trading days in 2026?

Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
32%probability

4-model average

LOWconfidence

building category history

—stability

loading

Mixedmodels

20pt spread

These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.

Belief trajectory

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Per-model probabilities

GPT-4o
30%-2 vs avg
Gemini
45%+13 vs avg
Claude
28%-4 vs avg
GrokGrok
25%-7 vs avg

Resolution criteria

SourceFederal Reserve H.15 (Selected Interest Rates)
CRENE-FED75-FRG-025-20261231Generated May 7, 2026