Will the ICE BofA MOVE index exceed 150 for 15 or more consecutive trading days between January 1 and December 31, 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
21%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
13pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.