Will the 2y10y Treasury yield curve slope invert (10y yield minus 2y yield below -50bps) for any single trading day in 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
37%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
60pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-7 vs avg
Gemini
75%+38 vs avg
Claude
28%-9 vs avg
Grok
15%-22 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (75%) vs Grok (15%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceU.S. Treasury yield curve data (FRED or Bloomberg)