Will the SOFR-IORB spread (SOFR rate minus Fed's Interest on Reserve Balances rate) widen to 20bps or more for 5 or more consecutive trading days in 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
24%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Mixedmodels
20pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%+11 vs avg
Gemini
20%-4 vs avg
Claude
28%+4 vs avg
Grok
15%-9 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve H.15 release (SOFR) and IORB policy rates