Will the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread) widen to 150bps or more at any point during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
40%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
40%
Gemini
35%-5 vs avg
Claude
50%+10 vs avg
Grok
35%-5 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceBloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (ticker: LBUSTRUU)