Will the Bloomberg US Mortgage-Backed Securities Index OAS widen to 120bps or more for 10 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
27%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
5pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.