Will the CMBX.NA.BBB Index price fall below 80 at any point during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
40%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
40pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
65%+25 vs avg
Gemini
40%
Claude
32%-8 vs avg
Grok
25%-15 vs avg
Key disagreementGPT-4o (65%) vs Grok (25%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceMarkit CMBX indices (Bloomberg terminal or Reuters)