Will the 10-year Treasury auction tail (highest accepted bid yield minus stop-out yield) exceed 2.5bps at any single auction during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
46%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
57pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
65%+19 vs avg
Gemini
15%-31 vs avg
Claude
72%+26 vs avg
Grok
35%-11 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs Gemini (15%): Different weighting of factors