Will the high-yield CCC spread (BofA Merrill Lynch CCC spread) widen to 900bps or more for any 5-consecutive-trading-day period during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
30%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%
Gemini
40%+10 vs avg
Claude
28%-2 vs avg
Grok
25%-5 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceBofA Global Research (HY OAS and CCC components)