Will the Bloomberg US High Yield OAS exceed 550bps for 15 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
25%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.