Will the TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF) experience a single-day intra-day price swing (high minus low) exceeding 3% on any trading day during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
42%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
50pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
45%+3 vs avg
Gemini
30%-12 vs avg
Claude
72%+30 vs avg
Grok
22%-20 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs Grok (22%): Different weighting of factors