Will the difference between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield widen to 250bps or more for 10 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
25%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
20pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%+10 vs avg
Gemini
35%+10 vs avg
Claude
18%-7 vs avg
Grok
15%-10 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (weekly) and Treasury yield data